Economic Drivers of Turkey’s Foreign Policy and the Issue of “Strategic Autonomy” (Sub-Imperialism)

This policy paper draws on analyses, conclusions and a re-composition of papers presented to the 3rd third panel of the project, “Turkey, Asia and the EU in a Changing Global Order”. It also builds on the two preceding policy papers of the same project, advancing the argumentation along four key points: a) The changing relations between Turkey, Asia and
Europe reflect on the one hand, Turkey’s growing economic presence at regional, European, and Afro-Asian levels and, on the other, the protracted downturn of Euro-Atlantic economies that followed the 2007-08 global financial crisis and the Eurozone crisis. b) Turkey’s active foreign policy reflects these changes seeking “strategic autonomy” in her international and regional decision-making, thus taking on “sub-imperial” forms. c) The war in Ukraine has disrupted Chinese economic penetration of EU markets, blocked Russian gas supplies to the European Union (EU) while partially and provisionally changing Turkey’s strategic position in NATO as the Turkish Straits are bypassed by the Greece-Balkans corridor to supply war material and logistics to Ukraine. d) Turkey’s active multidimensional foreign and defence policy should be seen in the above contexts and in line with an emerging “non-aligned movement” centred on the so-called “Global South” (China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, and other emerging economies). The EU must confront these realities by creating policy conditions for more independence from the U.S. within NATO and facilitating a peace agenda in Europe and Asia.