Scenario-based Small Area Population Modelling for Social Infrastructure Planning

In recent years, the geodemographic makeup of some areas in the UK has been rapidly changing. For example, immigration has put more pressure on child services, education and health care in places such as Slough, Peterborough and the Thames Gateway. Other factors affecting the Thames Gateway are housing development as part of the massive regeneration and the development and legacy of the Olympic site. This region is also experiencing high population churn, uncertainty in its demographic composition and issues in matching service delivery. There are also increasing demands for building sustainable communities that can adapt to change. A key to maintaining sustainable communities is the quality of services and opportunities afforded by the social infrastructure. Where the needs of residents rapidly change due to (im)migration, social and economic mobility and transience, there needs to be robust mechanisms for compiling and updating the evidence base on which policy and planning changes must necessarily be founded. This paper proposes scenario-base small area population modelling with multiple administrative data sources as a means of evidencing change. It is being implemented in the Thames Gateway London boroughs, with funding from UrbanBuzz (www.urbanbuzz.org) to support local social infrastructure planning.

Citation:

Li, Y., Brimicombe, A. J. (2008) ‘Scenario-based Small Area Population Modelling for Social Infrastructure Planning’ In: David Lambrick (ed.) (2008) Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 16th Annual conference GISRUK 2008, UNIGIS Manchester Metropolitan University 2nd - 4th April 2008 pp 348-353.