Popping the Balloon Effect: Assessing Drug Law Enforcement in Terms of Displacement, Diffusion, and the Containment Hypothesis

The ‘balloon effect’ is an often used but rather dismissive representation of
the effects of drug law enforcement. It implies a hydraulic displacement
model and an impervious illicit drug trade. This paper reviews theoretical
and empirical developments in policing and crime prevention. Based on this,
10 types of displacement are identified and four arguments developed: (1)
Displacement is less extensive and harmful than often contended; (2) Where
displacement may occur it preferably should be exploited as a policy tool to
delay the illicit drug industry and deflect it to less harmful locations and forms;
(3) The opposite of displacement occurs, termed a diffusion of drug control
benefits, wherein law enforcement has benefits that extend further than
envisaged, and has 10 types mirroring those of displacement; (4) The net
impact of drug law enforcement is often underestimated, and a containment
hypothesis may offer a more accurate framework for evaluation.